In 2023, China’s GDP will increase by 5.2% at constant prices compared with 2022, showing a favorable trend of solid advancement of high-quality development. In the face of a complex and severe international environment and arduous reform and development tasks, China’s economy has been able to highlight the resilience of steady growth. An important factor is that the continuously consolidated “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” fundamentals have laid a solid foundation for effectively preventing and responding to risks and supporting economic recovery. The basis for social stability. In the future, China will focus on ensuring food security and increasing farmers’ income, and promote comprehensive rural revitalization and urban-rural integrated development, which will release the huge development potential of smooth urban and rural economic cycles and ensure effective improvement in economic quality and reasonable growth in quantity.
First, “China’s rice bowl” is getting stronger and stronger, and it is “more confident” to prevent and respond to risks and challenges.
“If you have food in your hands, you won’t panic in your heart.” Food security is national security and the cornerstone of people’s livelihood security and social stability. The Communist Party of China regards ensuring food security as the top priority in governing the country and the bottom line of reform and development, and firmly practices “It was the first time the whole family had dinner together. When my daughter remembered to invite her mother-in-law and husband to dinner, her mother-in-law stopped her and said that there were no rules at home, and She was not happy about this, so she was asked to sit down and “ensure basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety of rations”, promulgated the “Food Security Law of the People’s Republic of China”, improved the policy mechanism for production capacity improvement and safe supply, and firmly held the job in her own hands. . In 2009, China implemented the first round of actions to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion jins, and proposed that the national grain production capacity would reach more than 1.1 trillion jins by 2020. In 2020, China’s grain output reached 1.34 trillion jins, an increase of 2,700 tons compared with 2008. More than 100 million kilograms. In 2023, China’s grain output will reach 1.39 trillion kilograms, an increase of 51.8 billion kilograms compared with 2020. China’s self-sufficiency rate in grain rations exceeds 100%, and its grain stocks are sufficient. Both rice and wheat stocks can meet market consumption for more than one year. Demand. With food security guaranteed, China has withstood the impact of food trade caused by sudden changes in the international situation and ensured the overall stability of food prices such as rice, flour, oil, meat, eggs, and milk. Some countries have to face soaring food prices and the world is affected by hunger. The increase in population is in stark contrast.
“With abundant grain and sufficient food, we are more confident.” China still has room to increase grain production and improve the food structure, and is fully capable of eating well on its own. This is China’s strategic confidence to cope with unprecedented risks and challenges. In 2023, China launched a new round of action to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion kilograms, focusing on increasing the large-area yields of major crops, improving farmland protection and soil fertility improvement mechanisms, cultivating high-quality agricultural production and management teams, promoting various forms of moderate-scale operations, and establishing Improve the long-term mechanism for agricultural disaster prevention, reduction, and relief. At the same time, we should establish a big agricultural concept and a big food concept, expand the scope of agricultural production space, develop facility agriculture, marine pastures, plant factories, and intelligent breeding, and build a diversified food supply system. This can establish a food supply system that dynamically matches demand on the basis of consolidating the foundation of food security and ensure continuous improvement of food security.Full and stable supply capacity has become the “ballast stone” for steady economic growth.
Second, the trend of “shared wealth between urban and rural areas” is accelerating, and consumption-driven economic growth is “more resilient”.
Every effort has been made to increase farmers’ income and ensure the smooth advancement of urbanization. Continuously increasing farmers’ income and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas are the key to steadily promoting urbanization and driving rapid economic development. This is also the basic path for our country to adhere to the people-centered approach and implement the concept of shared development. Judging from world experience, the widening income gap between urban and rural areas is the reason for the smooth start of urbanization and the result of rapid advancement. However, in the middle and late stages, promoting urbanization requires reshaping the economic growth momentum through the “shrinking gap” of farmers’ continuous income increase and breaking through. The solidification of the interest pattern hinders the leap in the economic development stage. Entering the 21st century, my country’s urbanization has achieved rapid advancement in the mid-term and the transformation to high-quality development in the mid- to late-term. The key is to do everything possible to increase farmers’ income, reverse the trend of widening urban-rural income gap, and accumulate the powerful driving force to promote the leap in the economic growth stage. At the end of 2008, when my country’s urbanization rate reached 45.7%, the urban-rural income gap shifted from widening to narrowing. Subsequently, increasing farmers’ income became the central task of “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” and continued to increase support for farmers’ income increase, thus promoting the urban-rural income gap. Downsizing and urbanization are advancing steadily in coordination. From 2012 to 2023, the urbanization rate increased from 53.1% to 66.2%, the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased from 8,389 yuan to 21,691 yuan, and the per capita disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents dropped from 2.88 to 2.39. Farmers’ income has continued to grow steadily, effectively resolving the contradictions between urban and rural development accumulated during the rapid advancement of urbanization, and laying an important foundation for urbanization to boost high-quality economic development.
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The urban-rural income gap continues to narrow, stimulating strong momentum for internal circulation. Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, focusing on building a mechanism for farmers to continue to increase their income and implementing actions to promote farmers’ income, our country has planned and introduced reform measures that reflect the orientation of income increase, expand income increase channels, and enhance the power of income increase to ensure that farmers continue to grow faster than “small expansion is coming” I’m sorry.” Xi Shixun replied seriously with an apologetic look on his face. The increase in the income of urban residents provides key support for unleashing the potential of consumption-driven economic internal circulation and stably realizing industrial upgrading and kinetic energy conversion. In 2023, the per capita disposable income of rural residents will be 41.9% of that of urban residents, which is equivalent to the per capita income level of urban residents in 2011; the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents will be 18,175 yuan, which is 55.1% of that of urban residents, which is equivalent to the per capita income level of urban residents in 2013. per capita consumption level. The “shrinking gap” in income between urban and rural residents has given rise to a stepped and bridging dynamic in the consumption structure, which will help reduce my country’s dependence on the international market and achieve a smooth upgrade of the industrial structure. At the same time, the rural consumer market provides effective support for the smooth replacement of old industries by new industries, slowing down the pain of the elimination of old industries and the upgrading of industrial structure.The last round of “home appliances going to the countryside” and the new round of bringing photovoltaic products and new energy vehicles to the countryside are all aimed at tapping and releasing rural consumption potential. It is worth noting that the proportion of rural residents’ consumption expenditure in income is significantly higher than that of urban residents. In 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents will account for 83.8% of per capita disposable income, while that of urban residents will be 63.7%. While stimulating more rural consumer demand, our country has accelerated the upgrading of the overall consumption structure, thereby spawning new industries and new business formats, and injecting new momentum into economic growth. The rapid development of the digital economy and smart industries is inseparable from the strong driving force of the rural consumer market, making the domestic economic cycle based on a more reliable driving force of domestic demand.
Third, “advancing and retreating with a well-founded basis” can turn crises into opportunities, and the development path of both urban and rural areas “has more advantages”.
Being both workers and farmers, “advancing and retreating in a well-founded manner”, playing the role of a “reservoir” for rural stability, is the “password” for China’s time-tested and sustained and steady development. The global significance of Chinese-style modernization lies in exploring a development path for developing countries to achieve common prosperity for all people. The process of world modernization shows that in the stages of rapid urbanization and industrialization in most developed and developing countries, the phenomenon of landless farmers and unemployed people gathering has affected social stability. Many countries have fallen into stagnation or even regression and turmoil. . China has spent decades going through the modernization process that Western developed countries have gone through for hundreds of years. Not only has it completed the historical task of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects as scheduled, but it has also turned crises into opportunities and achieved economic transformation and upgrading in the face of all risks and challenges. One of the most important factors is to adhere to the bottom line of reform and development and preserve the institutional channels for migrant workers to “advance and retreat in a well-established manner” between urban and rural areas. Since the reform and opening up, labor-intensive industries have absorbed a large number of rural labor forces in my country, and the migrant workers formed have provided strong support for China’s manufacturing to go global. From 2008 to 2023, the number of migrant workers in my country increased from 225 million to nearly 298 million. The flow of rural labor has not affected economic and social stability, but has become a “demographic dividend”. The main reason is to maintain the “three no’s” bottom line of “the nature of public ownership of land will not change, the red line of cultivated land will not be breached, and the interests of farmers will not be damaged”, and it will serve as a basis for progress. Urban migrant farmers retain their development rights as members of rural collective economic organizations. This is equivalent to giving full play to the “covering the bottom line” guarantee function of rural areas in the system, making rural areas become the “reservoir” for China’s development.
“Free switching” between urban and rural areas, playing the role of “driver” between urban and rural areas, is China’s advantage in bucking the trend and opening up a new development situation. With sufficient historical patience, adhering to the bottom line of rural reform, and leaving sufficient institutional channels for farmers to advance and retreat in urban and rural areas, we can play the role of rural “reservoir” in the long term and realize the free movement of farmers between urban and rural areas. This is the development advantage demonstrated by the new urbanization path with Chinese characteristics that is “both industrial and agricultural, and both urban and rural.”
On the one hand, we must comprehensively deepen rural reform, effectively and effectively promote the overall revitalization of rural areas, unify the realization of the rights of farmers’ collective members with the activation of resource factors, and mobilize the potential resources of rural areas.Transforming resource advantages into real development opportunities allows farmers returning home to shift from seeking livelihood security to entrepreneurship, employment and wealth, thereby accumulating new momentum for economic growth. From 2012 to 2022, a total of 12.2 million people have returned to their hometowns to start businesses nationwide. In the future, promoting comprehensive rural revitalization will attract more talents to return to their hometowns to start businesses and find employment.
On the other hand, the new pattern of urban-rural labor mobility will continue to stimulate new “demographic dividends” and accelerate the transformation of economic growth drivers. Data from the seventh national census show that my country’s working-age population aged 16-59 will be 880 million in 2020, a decrease of more than 40 million compared with 2010. Many domestic and foreign scholars believe that China no longer has the basis for a “demographic dividend”. In fact, it is enough to support the continued stability of China’s economy. Although he obeys his parents, he will not refuse. Do her this woman a small favor. The new “demographic dividend” of growth is accelerating. At present, China’s urbanization still has room for growth of more than ten percentage points, and there is still a large number of labor forces in rural areas that have yet to be transferred to cities. In addition, with the continuous improvement of rural education quality and the sharing of high-quality educational resources between urban and rural areas, the quality of rural migrant labor has improved rapidly. From 2012 to 2022, the proportion of migrant workers with high school education or above increased from 23.7% to 30.7%. The flow of rural labor force has shifted from one-way flow of young and middle-aged labor force to a new intergenerational flow pattern of young and middle-aged labor force moving to cities and old and weak labor force returning to their hometowns. The scope of employment and entrepreneurship of young and middle-aged rural labor force in cities is expanding to mid-to-high-end industrial fields. my country’s labor cost advantage is transforming into its human capital advantage, thereby exerting the multiplier effect of improving labor quality and quality to drive growth.
Fourth, the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas has been solidly advanced, and the balanced development of urban and rural areas has “more potential”.
The comprehensive revitalization of rural areas promotes balanced regional development and creates favorable conditions for achieving high-quality development. China’s per capita GDP is close to the standard for high-income countries defined by the World Bank, and it is in a critical period of breaking out of the “middle-income trap.” As a developing country, China still has prominent problems of unbalanced and inadequate development, especially unbalanced urban and rural development and insufficient rural development. This determines that the most arduous and arduous tasks in building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and a modern socialist country in an all-round way lie in rural areas, where the broadest and deepest foundation, greatest potential and stamina are also found. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, our country has adhered to the priority development of agriculture and rural areas. Through targeted poverty alleviation and key assistance, and the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, it has formed a good situation of accelerating the development of agriculture, rural areas, farmers’ modernization and urban-rural integration. In order to solve the development problems The problem of insufficient balance lays a solid foundation. Judging from the regional gap in per capita disposable income of rural residents, from 2017 to 2022, the ratio between the eastern region and the central region of my country remained at around 1.31, the ratio between the eastern region and the western region narrowed from 1.55 to 1.51, and the ratio between the eastern region and the northeastern region The ratio hovered from 1.28 to 1.32, and the ratio between central and western regions increased from 1.28 to 1.32.1.18 dropped to 1.15, and the maximum ratio of inter-provincial differences except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan dropped from 3.45 to 3.27. The formation of a balanced and coordinated development trend between urban and rural areas marks a more solid foundation for my country’s solid promotion of high-quality development.
The integrated development of urban and rural areas stimulates the “two-wheel” driving effect of comprehensive rural revitalization and new urbanization, injecting strong momentum into the realization of high-quality development. The steady advancement of balanced development between urban and rural areas will help enhance the endogenous power of the domestic economic cycle and support my country’s smooth entry into the high-quality development track of a higher-income stage. At present, the focus of my country’s “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” work has shifted to comprehensively promoting rural revitalization, focusing on coordinating new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, taking the urban-rural dual structure within counties as a starting point, promoting equal exchange and two-way flow of urban and rural factors, and promoting development factors and services sinking into rural areas, connecting urban and rural areas, and promoting shared prosperity. The above-mentioned strategic plans and major measures not only meet the expectations of urban and rural residents for a better life, but also address the institutional obstacles that are not conducive to the balanced and coordinated development of urban and rural areas. In the process of continuous substantial progress in the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas and integrated development of urban and rural areas, they will continue to unleash the power of balanced and coordinated development of urban and rural areas. Huge potential will inject strong impetus into consolidating a sound foundation for medium- and long-term economic stability.
At present, major changes in the world that have not been seen in a century are accelerating. In the process of promoting Chinese-style modernization, as long as we keep the basics of “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” and make good use of the “driver” of comprehensive rural revitalization and urban-rural integrated development, we will have the ability to withstand The “calming needle” that has been a major test in the face of high winds, rough seas and even stormy seas has a solid foundation for maintaining steady economic growth and high-quality development. In this sense, China’s economic prospects are not only bright, but can also contribute more Chinese power to world economic recovery and growth, continue to contribute Chinese wisdom to global economic governance, and create a new form of human civilization with Chinese-style modernization.
(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)